Based on what we covered in lecture, your text, and after reading through the resources in BB on Influenza (in the Lectures section) post your comments on the following questions regarding Avian flu H5N1:
1. Do you think a global pandemic of H5N1 will occur?
Go to the following article:
http://www.nature.com/news/the-risks-and-benefits-of-publishing-mutant-flu-studies-1.10138
2. Do you think that the mutant flu studies should be published? Justify (give reasons) for your opinion.
Yes, I believe that there is a very high risk of a global pandemic of H5N1. This is due to the lack of vaccines and that this virus could be becoming resistant. Viruses evolve quickly and for a global pandemic of H5N1 to occur there would only have to be a mutation allowing H5N1 to transmit from human to human. I also believe that this is very likely because if an H5N1 virus infects a cell, along with another virus that can transfer from human to human it could adopt the needed genes.
ReplyDeleteI believe that the flu studies should be published because the amount of new information that can be learned outweighs the possible risks of bioterrorism and outbreaks. Although the studies are being conducted in protected labs I believe that with what we know and the types of experiments being done, all studies should proceed in level 4 labs with the highest security.
1)Ultimately, no, I do not think a global pandemic of H5N1 will occur. According to the blog; "...H5N1 has failed to spark a pandemic because it cannot effectively spread between people." That research speaks for itself. It doesn't seem reasonable for a pandemic to occur when it cannot even be contracted between humans. Although scientists are finding that after multiple mutations it can spread (between ferrets), I don't see the likelihood of that happening in a human community.
ReplyDelete2) I believe it could be beneficial to publish the studies. It could spark interest for researchers and scientists. The fear that it will be used to bio terrorism is unreasonable because the blog stated: "...it cannot be targeted to a specific population." It would be helpful for people to share their findings on the subject and I think it overrides common fears and resistance to publication.
1)I feel that there is always a possibility of anything that can happen. But, when looking at this article and it says - Fouchier later added, however, that his mutant virus “does not spread yet like a pandemic or seasonal flu virus” and that the ferrets did not die when infected through aerosol transmission. Only when the virus was physically implanted into the trachea or nasal passages of ferrets did the infected animals die". I do find it harder to believe that there would be a full blown pandemic on our hands by reading that statement in this article. I also feel that research and testing at the highest security level should be continued with this virus.
ReplyDelete2) I feel that to publish the entire study could be risky for an increase in bio terrorism and selective parts should be omitted for public knowledge. Sometimes unfortunately, powerful information in the wrong hands can lead to disaster. Under the highest security in Level 4 Labs,only then would I be comfortable allowing the information to be used with further advancement in research.
I believe it is possible someday for the H5N1 virus to spread to humans in pandemic size proportions. How long will it take for the virus to mutate enough to infect us is the key question . It think it is a good idea to continue research on the virus in a BSL 4 lab so that every effort is made to prevent accidental infection.
ReplyDeleteI don't think the results should be made available at this time. I feel that more research needs to be done first. In addition, if the results are to be published someday, precautions need to be taken such as the development of medications/vaccinations to fight the strain in case it ends up in the wrong hands.
1. I think anything is possible when it comes to viruses such as H5N1. I think it's possible that there could be a pandemic though I don't know how quickly it would spread or even how far it would spread. And I definitely think it is a good idea to continue researching the virus in a BSL 4 lab so that we can learn everything we need to know about this virus, as well as setting a good example for what to do with viruses to come.
ReplyDelete2. I think that publishing the results to such an article at this time would be unfavorable. Before we unleash so much information to the public, who can do who knows what with all that information, we need to set some precautions. If anything, parts of the article could be published while others are purposely left out for the benefit of public knowledge as well as safety.
I believe that a global pandemic of the H5N1 virus is possible due to the fact that the Influenza A is always mutating. I think it is only a matter of time. If a team of scientists can mutate the genes and create H5N1 that can be passed from mammal to mammal, why can't nature. Mother nature is a powerful thing.
ReplyDeleteI think that the mutant flu studies should be published. This knowledge will help the scientific community in tremendous ways. I don't think this would be used as a weapon because you can't isolate it. Science can definitely learn from these findings.
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ReplyDelete1. While the current wild form of H5N1 has failed to start a pandemic ("Wild H5N1 viruses cannot latch on to the cells in a person’s nose and throat"), it is certainly possible for new mutant forms of the virus to become more effective at infecting humans and begin a pandemic - in addition to the new forms of the virus created by the researchers in the article, it is also noted that "there are also signs that some wild strains of H5N1 have developed resistance to antiviral drugs."
ReplyDelete2. I think that the studies on the mutant virus should be published, as it can help the scientific and medical community better understand the virus and how to effectively combat it in the future.
-Jay Valena
Maybe I have too much faith in present medical science, but I just can't imagine there ever being a flu pandemic like the one in 1918. We have come so far in the last hundred years, only to become more and more accomplished and knowledgeable with finding antidotes for illnesses.
ReplyDeleteLooking at it from another angle: My question would be who is funding the research, if our governments are funding the research then I say yes, all studies absolutely should be public record. Personally if I'm helping pay for these studies I want the option to follow the research. If these studies are privately funded then it's solely up to the funders/researchers to make that decision. As with so many other virus scares, people who are going to read these articles and lock themselves in their homes, should be given the liberty to wear a mask outside or any other precautions that would make them most comfortable.
W OConnor