Monday, September 27, 2010

Influenza!

Based on what we covered in lecture, your text, and after reading through the resources in BB on Influenza (In the Lectures section) post your comments on at least two of the following questions regarding Avian flu H5N1:
1. What is the source of this flu?
2. What is the relationship betwAeen birds, pig, humans and the flu?
3. How might an outbreak today compare with the1918 outbreak?
4. What would some of the consequences be of a pandemic today?
5. What is being done in light of the possibility of a pandemic?

Current situation with Avian flu outbreak
Reflect on the following:
1. Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?
2. How do we balance individual rights versus public welfare?

35 comments:

  1. The Avian flu H5N1 comes from birds mostly from Asia. The relationship between the birds, pigs and humans is that since pigs can get multiple types of flus from both humans and birds, people are afraid that if a pig gets infected with the H5N1 strain and another strain of the flu virus which can be passed from human to human, both flu viruses will exchange DNA and create a H5N1 strain that can pass from human to human.

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  2. 1. The 1918 flu broke out in soldiers living in Kansas. The sickness spread quickly throughout military bases as soldiers traveled from place to place. This particular flu killed about 600,000 people in America during its run.

    2. The 1918 flu killed roughly 550,000 Americans and 30 million people worldwide, about 1/3 of the world's population. If the ratios stayed the same, it would kill roughly 100 million Americans and over 2.2 billion people worldwide.

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  3. Avian Influenza Virus also known as Infuenza A virus is commonly found in birds. The connection between the birds, pigs, and the humans is that pigs can get the flu. Pigs are also considered as virus incubator because it can hold a virus and can take in another kind of virus and inside the pig, these viruses will exchange genetic information which will be able to form a new kind of flu virus, for example, H5N1 that can affect the humans. I think the more people get the flu shot every year, the less problem it will be.

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  4. How might an outbreak today compare with the1918 outbreak? An outbreak today would not be nearly as bad as it was in 1918. However, they estimate that there could be anywhere between two to seven million fatalities even though our technology has improved.


    What is the relationship between birds, pig, humans and the flu? The relationship between these is that birds are vectors for avian flu which can be transmitted to pigs and humans. H5N1 cannot be transmitted from human to humans however it is feared that while in the pig, the virus may exchange genes and morph into a strand that has the ability to be transmitted between humans.

    Reflect on the following:
    1. Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years? I feel like vaccination rates have declined recently and I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a major pandemic in the near future. According to the case study we’re due for one because there’s an outbreak every 30yrs.



    2. How do we balance individual rights versus public welfare? I’m not sure how this can be achieved because in order to maintain public welfare as a whole there will be times when individual rights have to be waived. I know this from personal experience and it’s not as easy as it sounds.

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  5. 1.What is the source of this flu?
    The source of this flu is from direct contact with infected poultry and wild birds.
    5. What is being done in light of the possibility of a pandemic?
    As of 2 years ago there was a ban on the importation of birds and bird products from the affected countries where the H5N1 existed. CDC is working with international companies to monitor the situation closely and to try and come up with a vaccine.

    Reflect on the following:
    1.Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?
    No I do not, simply due to the fact that a year ago we had the H1N1 flu outbreak. I do understand, however, that vaccines for the flu are only predicted by studying all the previous years so the science is not perfect which in any case can cause a pandemic if the prediction is wrong.
    2. How do we balance individual rights versus public welfare?
    Balancing individual right and public welfare can be hard, but as discussed in class we have the heard immunity where if 80% of the people are vaccinated we can keep everything control with the other 20%. So for the people who choose not to vaccinate hopefully enough others choose too. However more and more people believe that vaccines are causing autism and are choosing not to vaccinate their kids or themselves which in a few years can have a major affect on the spread of viruses.

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  6. 1. What is the source of the Avian Flu H5N1
    a. This infectious influenza virus occurs naturally among birds. It is carried by Wild birds worldwide in their intestines, but rarely affects them. The Avian Influenza is very contagious amongst birds and can make domesticated birds such as; chickens, ducks, and turkeys very sick and could kill them.

    2. How might an outbreak today compare with the 1918 outbreak?
    a. Even with all of our current technology and modern antiviral and antibacterial drugs, as well as the preventable knowledge that we have. It is estimated that with a virus with equal pathogenicity of the 1918 virus, it would kill over 100 million people worldwide.


    Reflect on the following:
    1. Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?

    I think that with our knowledge of these viruses and how we study them as well as with the vaccines and antiviral’s that we make that we could create good enough herd immunity if we take this seriously. This could be a huge factor to preventing major flu pandemics worldwide.

    2. How do we balance individual rights versus public welfare?
    I can definitely agree with Brianna on this, and don’t really know how we can balance it, or I don’t really understand what this question is asking. I think I need to do a little more research. If I understand this question correctly, I think that the government would have to take extreme measure to make this work out and to protect the welfare of people

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  7. 1. What is the source of this flu?

    Birds.

    2. What is the relationship between birds, pig, humans and the flu?

    Bird can infect and pass through air, nasal secretions or feces. It can be passes on pigs or humans. In pig, when infected they could create many different viruses. In human, when infected.. they can pass it on to another human, and that human can pass it on to another. Huge pandemic!

    3. How might an outbreak today compare with the 1918 outbreak?

    The outbreak today might not be as big as compared of 1918 because antibiotics for these virus are studied ahead of time and created as soon as they can. Before, this was impossible because we didn't have the kind of technology we have now.


    Reflect on the following:
    1. Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?

    There are studies that start to analyze the upcoming year and create a vaccine for the flu that might show up in the next year. It could be possible that, researchers were't able to predict the developing flu and a vaccine won't be available. Anything can happen.

    2. How do we balance individual rights versus public welfare?

    individual rights have the right to deny or accept a certain flu shots, and public welfare would be hard to accomplish to persuade parents and their children to get vaccinated.

    -Steph Madriaga

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  8. 1. What is the relationship between birds, pig, humans and the flu?

    The relationship between birds, pigs, humans, and the flu is that the birds infect the pigs with this disease. The pig acts as an incubator and then a human who has contact with birds or pigs can catch the flu. However, this flu has not manifested into its feared potential. Scientists fear that even though humans cannot infect other humans with this flu, one day they will be able to.

    2. How might an outbreak today compare with the 1918 outbreak?

    The flu epidemic of 1918 wiped out 30 million people worldwide, which at the time was 1/3 of the world's population. If an outbreak were to occur in today's world I don't think it would be as bad as it was in 1918. I believe that our advancements in technology, intelligence, and awareness are still succeptable to a flu outbreak; however our resources are far more advanced to where we could prevent such a large loss of lives.

    Reflect on the following:
    1. Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?
    I think that there is always potential for a major flu pandemic due to the adaptability and resilience of the flu viruses. However, I feel that if there was another major flu pandemic that our world today would be much more prepared and ready than back in 1918.

    2. How do we balance individual rights versus public welfare? This is a difficult goal to achieve. Nonetheless, if herd immunity is reached than the individuals who do not want to get the vaccine will not have as great of an affect on the rest of society's well being and safety.

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  9. Whoops forgot to add this.
    1. Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?
    I would hope there wouldn't be a major flu outbreak in the coming years but I feel that since the influenza virus evolves and changes so rapidly, there could possibly be a strain in the future which would cause a huge outbreak.
    2. How do we balance individual rights versus public welfare?
    For the sake of public welfare I believe that certain individual rights must be pushed aside so that society as whole would be protected against a flu pandemic or anything like that.

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  10. 1. What is the source of this flu?
    The source of this flu is from direct contact with infected poultry, wild birds, and there secretions. Since birds sneeze and excrete themselves while in flight, they could spread the virus anywhere.

    2. The 1918 flu caused a catastrophic death toll estimating around 600,000 Americans, and an additional 29.4 million people globally. Natural population loss in those numbers had not really been seen since the bubonic plague. If a pandemic like that were to occur today the numbers would be exponentially higher. The World is more populated, we live closer together, and worldwide travel is continually becoming more and more of a business necessity. Today a pandemic flu, such as the 1918 flu, could kill an unfathomable amount of people worldwide.

    Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?

    I think it is not an issue of if we will have another flu pandemic, but when. We know for some reason the influenza virus has an affinity for genetic sharing with other influenza viruses, which drastically increases their genetic diversity. Eventually, with travel being more and more of a necessity, we will see a combination of 2 extremely viral strains to create a super strain. With the amount of different influenza viruses and there continual exponential genetic diversity growth create a situation where each year the flu vaccine creators who predict possible strains based on previous trends, are starting to take shots in the dark. Like H1N1 they got it wrong because the statistical probability that they will get it right decreases drastically every year.

    How do we balance individual rights versus public welfare?

    We must have a herd mentality when it comes to pandemics. What is best for the species to survive? If that means temporarily halting peoples perceived rights, so be it. Those who choose to not vaccinate themselves or their children for whatever reason must understand that later, in the event of an emergency, they may be sacrificed or quarantined for the greater good. Surviving is about being courteous to people’s rights or wishes, it’s about surviving. You may not be forced to get vaccinated, but you may be forced out of the group in the event of an emergency.

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  11. 1. What is the source of this flu?
    The source of the Avian Flu naturally occurs in wild birds. These wild birds around the world carry the viruses in their intestines. They are very contagious and can infect other birds such as chickens, ducks, and turkeys and make them very sick.

    2. What is the relationship between birds, pig, humans and the flu?
    Infected birds can spread the Avian towards other animals especially the pig. The virus can be found in the bird’s saliva, nasal secretions, and feces. Pigs and humans can become infected by being in direct contact with the infected birds, especially in infected poultry.

    Reflection
    1. Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?
    I think with awareness of this major Avian Flu and people who are more cautious with their surroundings and not touch everything they see, a pandemic may be avoidable in the next couple of years.

    2. How do we balance individual rights versus public welfare?
    To be able to balance individual rights and public welfare is easier said than done. Obviously there should be rules and regulations but we have to consider people well-being.

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  12. The H5N1 flu comes from birds, primarily those in Asia. The relationship between birds, pigs and humans, is that pig’s are also known as a “virus incubator” so the concern is that pigs are able to contract the H5N1 flu from a bird, then there is a huge possibility that they could also contract another form of the flu from something or someone else. From there the viruses are able to change themselves and take on DNA from each other and out comes a brand new form of the flu, which would be a lot worse than either of the beginning forms. Therefore since it is coming from a pig it would be a lot simpler for humans to catch this newly made virus. I would hope that there wouldn’t be a huge flu pandemic within the next few years, but judging by what the experts say, I think that there is a possibility. Managing people’s rights versus welfare would not be an easy task. But if things were to come down to the point of this flu infecting and taking the lives of millions of people, everyone’s well being would need to be considered before anything else. Hopefully the statistics are a lot off, and this virus would not wind up killing well over billions of people.

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  13. 1. The Avian flu comes from bird, typically from the infected countries in Asia.

    5. It is no illegal to import birds from Asian countries know to carry the virus.


    1. I don't feel one can predict if there will be a mojor pandemic or not. Nature will take its course whether or not we are ready. I do feel though, that in America, we have little worry because great healthcare is so readily available.

    2. This is a difficult question. I don't feel it is ever right to deny someone their rights, but if it was for the sake of national health, then i feel it would be ok.

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  14. 1. The main source of the avian flu, or H5N1, comes from poultry. These birds are most likely from Asia.
    2. Birds and humans can pass viruses throughout the air or in nasal fluids. Pigs can become infected with this virus easily; these pigs can contract many viruses and just store them in their body. If these viruses, such as H5N1, are passed to a human it can be fatal. Humans then pass to other humans causing a major pandemic.
    1b) Do I think there will be another pandemic? It is hard to say whether or not this will happen. It isn’t exactly possible to predict an upcoming pandemic. If I had to guess, I would say yes simply because history repeats itself.
    2b) When it comes to public welfare and the well being of humans, I believe people should have a right now the vaccination and if they don’t want it, so be it.

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  15. 1- What is the source of the flu?
    >The H5N1 comes from poultry over in Asia.
    2- How would an outbreak today compare to the outbreak in 1918?
    > An outbreak today would go over a lot better than an outbreak in the early 1900's because we have advanced so far in technology and medicines. We know how to detect things and treat outbreaks much better.
    1-Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?
    > I think it is definitely a possibility. Especially considering the fact that we don't have any treatment methods for the Avian flu and the high death rate.
    2- How can we balance individual rights versus public welfare?
    >I don't think we can achieve making a real balance between the two. But, I do believe that it would be in the best regards if we took a greater stance towards the well being of the public and encourage everyone to get vaccinated.

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  16. 1. What is the source of this flu?
    The source of the Avian flu is mainly from birds. Wild birds typically carry them in their intestines, however they have immunity to it. Unfortunately it is very contagious among birds, therefore it is easy for domesticated birds to be infected as well. Human contact with an infected domesticated bird is what could possibly be deadly.


    2. What is the relationship betwAeen birds, pig, humans and the flu?
    The relationship between birds, pig, and humans have to deal with how the virus spreads. It can easily be passed on to pigs and humans by being in contact with the infected birds' feces, saliva, or nasal secretions. So far the virus is not known to be passed from human to human, however this is a possibility if the flu virus somehow exchange genes and create a new, deadlier strain.


    1. Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?
    Honestly I do think that a major flu pandemic is possible within the next few years. Although we have made advancements in science, I don't think we can say we are able to achieve maximum immunity against viruses because we cannot really formulate a vaccine or cure until we know what we are dealing with.


    2. How do we balance individual rights versus public welfare?
    In my opinion, I think the balance between individual rights and public welfare depends from one area to another. People in high risk areas should be required to take vaccines because the whole idea is to limit/eliminate the spread of the virus. On the other hand, people in less risky environments should have the option to because it is not really necessary unless they travel elsewhere.

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  17. 1. What is the source of the flu?
    It is a virus that occurs naturally among birds. However, the source of the flu comes from direct contact with infected poultry.

    2. What is the relationship between birds, pigs, humans and the flu?
    The birds are the vectors of the flu, which can be transmitted through pigs and humans. The however, cannot be transmitted from human to human. The pig acts like an incubator, in a sense that they house the virus and are able to take on another type of virus. Inside the pig, the viruses are capable of exchanging genetic information which can ultimately produce a new virus such as the H5N1. The H5N1 can affect humans.


    1. Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?
    To be honest i thing anything is possible. Like anything its is hard to predict what might be the virus for the next year. With that being said even though guesses are taken as to what the flu might be they can have a slip up and we might ended up getting it. Its hard to predict after all we are only human, and humans do make mistakes.

    2.How can we balance individual rights versus public welfare?
    I think that it is hard to balance them both. However a whole society comes first before and individual. If one individual does not want to get vaccinated i think that they should be forced not only for those around them in society but also for that individuals own good.

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  18. The Avian Influenza Virus is found in birds. The virus could be passed through pigs & birds. Often contaminates our food supply & infects us. For example the H5N1 virus was passed down through bird fecal matter through the pigs food supply. The pigs became a virus incubator where the virus slowly acquired & changed their genetic material. Once the virus infected the pigs the virus is passed down to humans through our food supply. I believe there will be another major flu pandemic in a couple of years from now. You'll never know when the next strain or when the flu acquires new genetic material & yet again change. The flu virus consistently changes depending on their host or their genetic material. I believe providing an option to use vaccination.Through education we hope we can change the minds of individuals who don't believe in vaccination.

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  19. the relationship between birds, pig, humans and the flu is simple. birds carry the flu, and so far we can only get the h5n1 flue from birds and can not pass it from human to human. pigs can also get h5n1 from birds and can get human flu from us. the concern is that the h5n1 will get genes from a human flu while in a pig, that will allow h5n1 to be passed from human to human.

    the outbreak of 1918 killed 3 percent of the worlds population. it was a very wide spread disease reaching the most remote cities and lasted a little over 2 years. if an outbreak were to happen today, I'm sure it would begin like it did in 1918; very strong and spreading very fast. but with new technology and learning from past experiences i think it would last maybe one wave. the next wave, we would be prepared and ready for it leaving the virus no choice but to mutate to a lesser virulent strain; as is the tendency for pathogenic viruses.

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  20. Awesome my second time doing this post! Thank you internet explorer.
    1.What is the source of the avian bird flu?
    The source of the avian bird flu are birds.We most commonly get it from poultry.
    2.What is the relationship between birds, pigs, humans and the flu?
    Birds can give the flu, the pig can house genetically changed versions of the flu, and humans cannot pass the avian bird flu on to other humans.
    1. Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?
    I think we may be long overdue for another outbreak, which is definately a scary thought. If the avian bird flu mixed with the regular flu in a piggy and then we contracted it we would be in deep trouble. Since the bird flu has about a 50% mortality rate many people would die.
    2.How can we balance individual rights versus public welfare?
    It would not be easy to balance both of these things, it never is. What we could try to do is make a mandatory vaccine, and anyone who does not get the vaccine will not be allowed to come into contact with anyone.

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  21. 1.What is the source of this flu?
    The source of the H1N5 flu is from the Birds, which are passed around to other birds by their Saliva and feces. Since the Virus is carried by the birds It can be spread to all parts of the world.

    2.What is the relationship between birds, pig, humans and the flu?
    Currently Humans are not in much danger of being infected with the H1N5 because the virus is only in birds. However since H1N5 Flu is carried by the birds, the virus can easily be transferred to other animals such as Pigs and If the pig is also infected with other strains of flu such as the ones that are easily transferred between humans. Then there might be the possibility for a pandemic, since now there is a new flu that has both the characteristics of being transferred between humans and being deadly at the same time.

    Reflections
    3.I don’t think there would be a major pandemic of the H1N5 flu in the next few years because we have plenty of time to figure out a new antiviral Drug.
    4.Balancing the individual rights versus public welfare is had task to accomplish, If someone doesn’t want to be vaccinated he has the right to deny it however that person won’t have a effect on public welfare since it would be a small minority that would refuse the vaccination, and if all the others are vaccinated, then their health is not in danger.

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  22. 1. What is the source of this flu?

    The source of H5N1 or the avian flu is birds.

    2. What is the relationship between birds, pig, humans and the flu?

    The avian flu can infect pigs and mix with the pig's flu viruses. The mix in genetic information allows it to infect humans, which can lead to a deadly epidemic because the people in the U.S. are not immune to this kind of flu.


    Reflect on the following:
    1. Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?

    I don't think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years because we are knowledgeable enough about it to keep stall it from happening. I don't think we will be able to keep it happening forever though so I do think it will happen eventually but hopfully we are well prepared by then.

    2. How do we balance individual rights versus public welfare?

    I think that those are impossible things to balance. The government has found loop holes around individual rights before though so vaccines may be forced upon people if it is serious enough.

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  23. 1. What is the source of this flu?
    The source of the avian flu is birds.

    3. How might an outbreak today compare with the 1918 outbreak?
    An outbreak today would not be as bad as the outbreak in 1918 due to the improvement in technology. While the outbreak would not be as bad scientists still estimate that the death toll of an outbreak today to be between 2 and 7 million people.

    1. Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?
    I do not think that there would be a major flu epidemic in the next few years since scientists are mostly aware of is going on with the flu. I say that but the outbreak of the swine flu last year showed that while prevention works it does not mean that it is 100% effective.

    2. How do we balance individual rights versus public welfare?
    I do not know if we can truly balance individual rights and public welfare. For the most part people will do what they need in order to preserve their health and the health of the people around them.

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  24. -the avian flu comes from birds. The bird will carry the virus among the birds is deady.
    -the relationship between all pigs and birds is that they can get infectdwith this virus. The virus spreads rapidly through poultry. H5N1 usually just infects birds but if a human comes in direct contact with poultry infected then the human would get the flu.
    -i dont think that there will be a major pandemic becouse scientists have been up to date with the types of flu.
    -in my opinion idividual rights and public welfare wont be compltetely balanced. idividuals have their own opinion of what their rights are. inorder to take care of the public all they need to do is vaccinate the people that are willing.

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  25. 1. The Avian flu h5n1 come primarily from Asia and is carried by birds.

    2. The relationship between birds pigs and humans is that the carrier of the h5n1 is a bird witch don't transmit the virus to humans but they do to pigs witch like the h1n1 the pigs could transmit the virus to humans and making that bad for u

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  26. 1.What is the source of this flu?
    H5N1 is found in many species of birds. Hence the name Avian influenza. There are many countries with infected H5N1 influenza birds such as: Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Greece, Iran, Italy, Poland, Serbia and Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland.
    2. What is the relationship between birds, pig, humans and the flu?
    Avian influenza viruses infected pigs and mixed with pig influenza viruses. The viruses exchanged genetic information, which led to the formation of a new virus. This new virus could then infect humans and easily spread from person to person.

    1. Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?
    H5N1 has been shown to survive in the environment for long periods of time. Infection may be spread simply by touching contaminated surfaces. The wider the area over which the avian flu virus spreads, the greater the chances of a worldwide outbreak. H5N1 proves there is a scary possibility that there will be a pandemic in the near future if it is not controlled.
    2. How do we balance individual rights versus public welfare?
    We must decide what is right for us a s a whole, not by an individual. If the only way to control the pandemic is to take our individual rights away than that is what must happen. Controlling a pandemic is not something the individual has the power to do, it must be controlled by us internationally.

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  27. 1.What is the source of this flu?
    The source of Avian influenza comes from wild birds that may naturally carry the virus in their intestines. Only birds are highly vulnerable to the virus through contact with contaminated surfaces and contact with other wild birds.


    2.What is the relationship betwAeen birds, pig, humans and the flu?
    The influenza virus is highly widespread in birds. The birds are able to transfer the virus through pigs by infecting waterfowls and poultries. The infected pigs are able to transfer the virus to humans and back to pigs.

    Reflection
    1. Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?
    I don't think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years since we are finding something new about this virus everyday. With our advances in technology and the research that is being done, we can only hope that scientist can prevent an outbreak of a pandemic.

    2. How do we balance individual rights versus public welfare?
    Balance cannot be truly achieved. I think the most important goal to achieve first is to inform the public of the issue and what is being done. By informing society, individuals are better informed and are able to take certain precaution to prevent them from catching the virus. From there, the government can try to step in to enact upon certain regulations [on farms] for the well-being of the public.

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  28. 1.What is the source of this flu?
    The source of the Avian Flu H5N1 is from direct contact with an infected bird or infected poultry.
    2.How might an outbreak today compare with the 1918 outbreak.
    An outbreak of the Avian Flu H5N1 today may not be as bad compared to the outbreak in 1918 because of our current state of knowledge on viruses and our technology today but it is still estimated that there would be 2-7 million deaths if a pandemic broke out today.
    1.Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?
    I think there is a possibility that there could be a major pandemic in the next few years because of the adaptability of the flu virus but I don’t think it will be as bad as the 1918 outbreak because we are currently aware of these viruses and can better prepare ourselves if there was one.
    2.How do we balance individual rights versus public welfare?
    I believe that finding a balance between the two is a very difficult task to attain because if we want public welfare and safety then individual rights are most likely going to be taken away if a pandemic did occur

    Megan T.

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  29. 2. The relationship between birds, pigs and humans is that the H1N5 virus is transmitted from bird to bird. Interestingly, birds do not pass this virus to humans, except if you are seropositive. However, pigs can contract a flu virus and transmit the virus to humans and furthermore, a bird can transmit the virus to a pig. So the transmission line could evenutally lead to a human...in a round about way. Its possible, but not likely.

    3. An outbreak today in comparison to the 1918 outbreak might not be as deadly, but the evolution of virus and the mutations as well as genetic recombination has been astouding! So there is a very good chance that an outbreak today might surpass the devstationg in 1918 by the sheer virulence of the newly evolved virus. One might hope that medical technology would help curb the probable devstation, but the bottome line is that viruses are deadly and can be unpredictable.

    Reflection:
    1. A major flu pandemic could occur in the next few years because of how viruses mutate and intense genetic recomibation takes place. People should be concerned about human to human transmission and taking all the necessary precautions to avoid contracting the virus.
    2. The balance between individual rights and public welfare has teetered dangerously for the past two centuries, but most predominantly in the 20the century as public health officials struggled to encourage and later enfore immunizations. In the 20th century, public health officials needed to educate the public to lessen the fervent distrust of the medical profession and their techniques. I think that the method of public education still remains the best at easing the public's mind and proving the necessity as well as the effectiveness of public health measures. A person should be able to exercise individual rights, but the perservation of the public's health should be the main concern of everyone involved.

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  30. 1. This flu is caused by an avian flu virus. While the flu is pretty common in wild birds, domesticated birds are not usually exposed to it, causing them be become ill. Most cases of infected humans were a result of direct contact with the infected bird.
    2. A bird serves as a vector for this type of flu. Its is transported to a human or pig through the infected saliva, nasal secretions, or feces. Pigs serve as some what of a incubator for viruses. The pig will hold on one virus and get infected by another at the same time. This serves as a risk of mutating the viruses so that they are more harmful to humans. As of right now H5N1 can not but transmitted from human to human, but with variations given by the pig it could become possible.

    1. Anything is possible really, so a pandemic could happen within the next few years. I don't think that it is very likely, or will be as severe as those in the past. Because of the fact that we do offer vaccinations, I feel as though a detrimental pandemic is not likely.

    2. Although individual rights are extremely important, I think that in a case like this, public welfare exceeds that of individual rights. The herd must be protected from the illness so that those who are not able to be vaccinated will also be protected. It should be required to be vaccinated so that our future will be safe from a pandemic like that of 1918.

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  31. 1. What is the source of this flu?
    The Avian flu or H5N1 is an influenza virus naturally occurring in wild birds. The virus is transmitted very easily to other birds through feces, saliva and nasal secretions. Humans usually acquire the virus from infected domesticated birds.
    4. What would some of the consequences be of a pandemic today?
    An influenza outbreak today would likely spread rapidly because of our ability to travel globally. Medical facilities and personnel would be strained, and unable to care for the number of infected people. There would be a high demand for vaccines and vaccine development, as well as antiviral drugs.
    Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?
    I believe a major flu pandemic is certainly possible in the next few years.I do not believe a pandemic on the same scale as the 1918 influenza is likely. Scientists seem to be keeping a close eye on the flu and its trends. There is preparedness planning and models designed to ensure the safety of the masses. Although once an outbreak starts, as we experienced with H1N1, scientist need time to develop and fabricate enough vaccine for people. This time gives the virus a head start and puts many at risk.
    How do we balance individual rights versus public welfare?
    I believe the balance starts with education. People need to be properly educated at schools about vaccines, pandemic and the spread of disease in general. If a pandemic the scale of 1918 was afoot, the government would certainly need to act on the behave of the mass population.

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  32. 1. What is the source of this flu?
    The Avian flu is naturally occurring in wild birds.
    2. How might an outbreak today compare with the 1918 outbreak?
    The flu outbreak in 1918 killed about 30 million people worldwide. Today, with all of the technological and medical advancements, along with our accumulated knowledge and awareness of viruses, I believe that we would be able to handle an outbreak and possibly prevent an enormous loss of lives.

    Reflections:
    1. Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?
    Because of last year's swine flu, I don't believe we will be experiencing a major flu pandemic in a few years. Although viruses are unpredicatble, I think that the CDC is doing what they can to prevent another pandemic through much research and preparation.

    2. How do we balance individual rights versus public welfare?
    It's nearly impossible to please everyone, and while I believe that an individual's rights should be respected, it is the governement's responsibility to protect the public. Public welfare is more rational in such a case in order to prevent another wipeout of the mass population.

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  33. 1. What is the source of this flu?
    The source of this Avian flu come from birds and has the possibility of infecting human and animals.
    2. What would some of the consequences be of a pandemic today?
    If the H5N1 were to break out there would be a high death rate. People who come in contact with wild birds have a higher risk of getting infected. For example, people in Asia and parts of Europe usually raise their birds and are susceptible if getting the viruse. Since viruses change there is little or no immune protection against them.
    Refelction
    1. I believe there may be a major flu pandemic since all of these virus that were dormant are all of a sudden popping up. For instance, whopping cough, H1N1 virus, and a while tuberculosis hit the news. There is a possibility that the H5N1 may come towards North America but it is still unclear of what may happen to this virus. Viruses change in order to survive and adapt to the environment.
    2. The set of balancing of individual rights and public welfare would be difficult because not that many people can get the vaccinated. Some people are allergic to the products in the vaccine. People have the right to refuse to get vaccinated and should not be pressured to get it.

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  34. 1. What is the source of this flu?
    - viruses adapted to birds.
    2. What is the relationship between birds, pig, humans and the flu?
    - they all refer to an illness caused by any of many different strains of influenza viruses that have adapted to a specific host.

    1. Do you think there will be a major flu pandemic in the next few years?
    - Yes, it is highly possible. Look at the H1N1 flu; viruses are very unpredictable.
    2. How do we balance individual rights versus public welfare?
    - Education. If people are well-informed, then it would totally be up to them whether they want to be safe or not.

    -Megan R.

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  35. The source of the Avian flu H5N1 comes from birds; therefore, this virus is also known as the Bird Flu. Humans do not become infected by the bird, but by the pig which makes it a little complicated. The bird passes the virus to the pig and then humans come in contact with sick pigs and that is how humans can get infected. In 1918, there were vaccines for small pox, anthrax, and rabies. Whereas today there are vaccines for different Influenza's. The influenza virus has such a complex structure in which it changes its structure each year which makes it difficult to make a successful vaccine. I believe that there could be a possible pandemic on a major flu in the next few years since there are always new discoveries on different viruses. There is so much in the world that I would not be surprised that has not been discovered, which can perhaps be the cause of a major pandemic on anything really.

    -Maria Serota

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